In the first 10 months of 2023, rice exports will earn nearly $4 billion, the highest year-on-year level since 2009.

Preliminary data from the General Department of Customs showed that Vietnam's rice exports in October reached 700,000 tons, equivalent to 433 million USD, flat in volume and up 27% in value compared to October 2022.

Rice exports reached their highest level since at least 2009

In the first 10 months of 2023, Vietnam has exported more than 7.1 million tons of rice, equivalent to nearly 4 billion USD, up 17% in volume and 35% in value over the same period in 2022. Thus, in the first 10 months of 2023, rice export turnover will reach the highest year-on-year level since at least 2009.

Data from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) shows that, as of October 27, compared to the group of major rice exporting countries in the world, Vietnamese rice is having the highest price.

Specifically, Vietnam's 5% broken rice is being sold at $643/ton, higher than the same goods of Thailand and Pakistan at $79/ton and $80/ton, respectively. Vietnam's 25% broken rice traded at $628 per tonne, higher than its Thai and Pakistani peers of $106 per tonne and $140 per tonne, respectively.

Along with the export price of rice remaining high, the price of rice in the market also simultaneously increased to an unprecedented high. According to reports by the Departments of Agriculture and Rural Development, the price of rice in fields and warehouses increases every day. In particular, in the North, the price of dry rice increased to 14,000 VND per kilogram. As for the Western provinces, typically in An Giang rice bowl, the price of village rice is up to 15,000 VND per kg. Dai Thom rice, fresh flowers to 9,000 VND, up 1,000 VND/kg compared to the previous season.

According to Do Ha Nam, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), the record high price of rice among the people pushes domestic rice prices higher than export prices. This is also the reason why Vietnam's rice export prices are constantly wading back into the world. Low supply but escalating prices make many Vietnamese enterprises dare not sign new export contracts.

Sharing the same view on this issue, Mr. Pham Thai Binh - Chairman of the Board of Directors of Trung An High-tech Agriculture Joint Stock Company - said that the domestic rice market entered the end of the harvest, the supply was not much but the selling price fluctuated in the direction of increasing sharply.

"Enterprises are having to buy fresh rice in the field at the price of 8,000-8,200 VND/kg, the highest purchase price ever. Compared to the beginning of the year, rice prices have increased by about 30%," Mr. Pham Thai Binh shared.

In terms of rice exports, businesses signed contracts at $670-680 per tonne — also a historic record high. According to Mr. Binh, the supply of rice for export of our country from now until the end of the year is not much. Meanwhile, demand in the world market remains high, especially from Indonesia, the Philippines, and China.

Mr. Nguyen Van Viet - Director General of the Planning Department (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) - said that compared to the rice price fever in 2008, this year Vietnam has made better use of market opportunities. According to calculations from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in the highest scenario, Vietnam can export about 7.8 million tons of rice, turnover will reach about 4.2 - 4.5 billion USD in 2023.

Talking about the prospect of export rice prices, Mr. Pham Thai Binh said that the price will remain high and difficult to fall to $ 600 / ton, even during the harvest of the Winter Spring crop, the supply from Vietnam and Thailand increases.

Global demand for rice tends to increase over the years, while supply from rice-growing countries decreases due to climate change. Therefore, Mr. Pham Thai Binh said that in the first months of 2024, the export price of rice can be anchored at 640-650 USD/ton.

According to Mr. Nguyen Van Hieu - Head of Export Department of Loc Troi Group, rice prices are much higher than previous years, the price increase may last because demand is stronger than supply. If India continues to restrict exports to the world, rice prices are likely to reach $1,000 per tonne, a record level in 2008.

As an enterprise specializing in exporting to the Chinese market, Mr. Nguyen Van Don - Director of Viet Hung (Tien Giang) Co., Ltd. - said that in the autumn-winter season, the harvest output is not much, so how much we sell, we buy as much as we want to buy, not dare to sign large orders. Because if there are big fluctuations in the market, businesses cannot keep up. Now, however, the market has also shaped the price.

"Because the main customers of the business are the Chinese and African markets. Recently, we have made a few orders and sold to customers in the Chinese market at quite high prices. There are still a few small orders for export to the African market, we have also finished preparations", Mr. Nguyen Van Don said.

"The Winter Spring crop is usually the crop that businesses have to plan and buy to store because this is a good quality rice crop. On the other hand, this crop is usually in season, so the price of rice is relatively lighter. The summer-autumn and autumn-winter crops yield less and the purchase price of rice is usually higher," Nguyen Van Don added.