According to IQI Global (Malaysia) chief economist Shan Saeed, talking to VNA reporters in Kuala Lumpur on December 4, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is entering a promising new growth phase in the years 2025-2026. The main driver of this boom cycle comes from 5 dynamic economies including Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam.

Mr. Shan Saeed emphasized that this group of 5 countries is becoming a pillar for the next super cycle of development of the region thanks to its young population, strong reform process and strategic convergence between human resource development, infrastructure modernization and resource optimization.

Among them, Vietnam is considered to be in a period of rapid acceleration with an estimated GDP growth rate of 7-8%. The advantage of a young population and a workforce with digital skills and high levels of education are important launchpads for the economy.

In Indonesia – Southeast Asia's largest economy – growth remains at 5-6% per year, thanks to taking advantage of its large population, abundant natural resources and accelerating downstream industrialization in sectors such as nickel, bauxite, energy and agriculture.

For Malaysia and the Philippines, continued growth per capita income and an expanding middle class are the main drivers for these two consumption-oriented economies to maintain growth of 4.5-5.5% in the coming period.

Thailand is also forecast to achieve a growth rate of 3-4% thanks to modern infrastructure, a recovering tourism industry and a shift in global supply chains, thereby strengthening its position as the region's manufacturing and logistics hub.
Summing up Mr. Shan Saeed's forecast, the growth of Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam in the period 2025-2026 will be at 4.5-5.5%, respectively; 5-6%; 3-4%; 4.5-5.5% and 7-8%.

According to experts, ASEAN has a population of about 680 million people, of which 34% of the workforce is under the age of 25 and the majority of workers are between the ages of 18-49. It is an important demographic platform that drives productivity, innovation, and domestic consumption throughout the region.

Along with that, infrastructure investment continues to increase, high-quality FDI inflows are strong, and abundant resources in many countries are supporting this group of 5 countries to become a structural foundation contributing to ASEAN's long-term economic recovery.

Mr. Shan Saeed affirmed that this group of 5 countries not only brings growth momentum to each economy but also creates a new depth of development structure for the whole region. With the advantages of market size, young workforce, large aggregate demand, stable macro foundation and deep integration, ASEAN is poised not only for growth, but also for strong transformation.

According to IQI Global's chief economist, investors, policymakers and international businesses no longer see ASEAN as a group of discrete emerging markets, but as a unified economic ecosystem with room for long-term expansion. This reinforces expectations that ASEAN will become an emerging economic hub in the Indo-Pacific region, ready to compete with the world's leading economic clusters such as the EU, North America or Northeast Asia.

He emphasized that ASEAN's development is not just a growth story, but a process of building a resilient, competitive and well-prepared region for the future.

Source: Compiled by the Multilateral Trade Policy Department, Ministry of Industry and Trade of Viet Nam