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How will export rice prices develop in the coming months?

03:00 - 08/11/2023

In the second half of September 2023, export rice prices of Asian suppliers continue to have strong adjustments in the direction of falling to below 600 USD/ton, with Vietnam's rice remaining stable between 613 and 617 USD per ton for 5% broken rice.

Vietnam's rice export prices are currently higher than countries such as Thailand and Pakistan

At this level, Vietnam's rice continues to be 23 USD/ton higher than Thailand's (590 USD/ton) and 15 USD/ton higher than Pakistan's (598 USD/ton).

The reason why Vietnam's rice price is far behind its competitors is because Vietnam has not yet reached the time of full harvest of Autumn-Winter rice. Besides, the amount of rice and export capacity from now until the end of the year is not much, only about 1 million tons. Meanwhile, countries such as Thailand, Myanmar, Pakistan and especially India are preparing to begin harvesting the main rice crop of the year. Therefore, in these countries, output is abundant and prices have decreased slightly.

Regarding rice prices in the coming time, many say that it is difficult to make an accurate prediction because the world rice market depends on many factors. “In October 2023 - when India's crop is harvested and the Indian Government sells goods to import new crops, the price of world rice may continue to decrease further. If the Indian Government continues to maintain the current ban, rice prices will still be maintained" - said Mr. Dinh Minh Tam, Director of Co May Ltd.

In fact, rice demand continues to be high in major importing countries. As of September 15, the Philippines had only imported about 2.4 million tons of rice while the US Department of Agriculture forecasts that the country's entire year's rice imports would reach 3.5 million tons.

Along with the Philippines, Indonesia is also looking for rice supplies for national food security goals and maintaining reserves. Recently, the head of the Indonesian National Food Agency, Arief Prasetyo Adi said that the President of the country, Mr. Joko Widodo (Jokowi), has directed the import of 1 million tons of rice from China to increase rice reserves of China for 2024.

In addition, although Malaysia is a rice producing country, it still needs to import up to 30% to ensure domestic consumption and reserve requirements. Specifically, according to this country's press, in Malaysia, domestic white rice is a controlled product with a ceiling price of 26 ringgit (5.54 USD) per 10 kg. However, the rice production industry can only meet 70% of demand. Therefore, this country imports white rice mainly from India, Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia.

The demand for rice in many countries is increasing, so businesses expect the market to become vibrant again in the last months of the year. This will be an opportunity for Vietnam's rice industry to take advantage of.

Regarding rice output, according to the General Statistics Office, for the whole year of 2023, rice output will reach 43-43.4 million tons, an increase of about 650-700 thousand tons compared to 2022, exceeding 170 thousand tons compared to the previous year. plan of the rural agricultural sector in 2023. According to estimates by the General Statistics Office, it is possible to achieve 7.5 million tons of rice export in 2023 while still ensuring domestic food security.