Vietnam’s rice exports in the first quarter of 2026 showed mixed developments, with stable performance in key markets, particularly the Philippines, while export value continued to face downward pressure and impacts from market fluctuations and geopolitical factors.

In Q1 2026, Vietnam’s rice export activities recorded both recovery in certain major markets, especially the Philippines, and an overall decline in export value. According to data from the General Department of Customs, in March 2026, Vietnam exported over 1 million tons of rice, equivalent to USD 479 million, up 62.3% in volume and 68.4% in value compared to the previous month, but down 6.4% in volume and 9.7% in value year-on-year. For the first quarter as a whole, exports reached 2.3 million tons with a value of USD 1.1 billion, down 1.2% in volume and 10.9% in value compared to the same period last year.

The Philippines remained Vietnam’s largest rice export market. In Q1, exports to this market reached nearly 1.2 million tons, valued at USD 521.2 million, up 21.3% in volume and 6.7% in value year-on-year, accounting for 52.4% of Vietnam’s total rice export volume. In March alone, exports to the Philippines reached 485,035 tons, equivalent to USD 208.6 million, increasing by 10.5% in volume and 2% in value compared to the same period last year.

Among other markets, China rose to become the second-largest destination, with exports reaching 334,501 tons worth USD 167 million, up 44.1% in volume and 44.4% in value, raising its market share from 10.1% to 14.7%. Other markets such as Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Australia and the United States also recorded growth. In contrast, exports to Singapore declined by 7.9%, Hong Kong (China) by 13.3%, and African markets such as Ghana by 17.9%.

Notably, exports to the Middle East declined sharply, with shipments to the UAE down 89.4%, Saudi Arabia down 32.3%, and no shipments recorded to Iraq. This trend was observed in the context of tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran, which partly affected Vietnam’s rice export activities toward the end of the first quarter.

Source: Vietnambiz

In terms of pricing, the average export price of Vietnamese rice in Q1 2026 stood at USD 470 per ton, down nearly 10% (equivalent to USD 51 per ton) compared to the same period last year. In March, the average price reached USD 475 per ton, down 3.5% year-on-year but up 3.8% compared to the previous month.

Domestically, paddy prices showed a declining trend compared to the same period last year. Specifically, fragrant paddy prices averaged around VND 5,589 per kg, down 11%, while ordinary paddy stood at VND 5,379 per kg, down 6.5%. Export rice prices generally remained 6–10% lower than in the same period last year. As of April 22, some types of raw rice such as IR 504 and CL 555 recorded slight increases; however, trading activity remained subdued and paddy prices were largely stable.

On the demand side, the Philippines is preparing to increase rice imports to ensure domestic supply as local production weakens due to rising input costs. The country is expected to continue importing from key suppliers including Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia, India and Pakistan. As of April 9, 2026, these sources accounted for 92.7% of the Philippines’ total rice imports, equivalent to around 1.36 million tons.

Meanwhile, South Korea has launched an international tender to purchase 20,000 tons of rice from the United States or Vietnam, with the bid submission deadline set for April 28, 2026, and delivery scheduled from June 1 to August 15, 2026. In addition, another tender with a volume of 65,394 tons has also been conducted. These developments indicate that import demand from certain markets continues to be maintained.

Overall, the structure of Vietnam’s rice export markets in Q1 2026 continued to shift, with increasing shares going to the Philippines and China, while some other markets showed a declining trend. This indicates that Vietnam’s rice exports remain dependent on a number of major markets and are significantly influenced by external factors such as demand fluctuations, import policies and geopolitical developments. Many enterprises continue to rely on order-based exports, with limited engagement in leveraging FTA markets, resulting in continued dependence on less demanding markets with lower profit margins and higher price risks.

In this context, maintaining stable key markets while expanding into new ones remains important for Vietnam’s rice exports in the coming period. Exporting enterprises should closely monitor supply–demand dynamics and import policies in major markets, particularly the Philippines, to take advantage of opportunities to increase orders as demand rises. At the same time, efforts should be made to diversify export markets to mitigate risks associated with declines in certain regions. Given ongoing price pressures, improving product quality, standards and value addition will be essential to enhance competitiveness. Enterprises should also strengthen market monitoring, proactively respond to uncertainties such as geopolitical developments that may affect logistics and trade, and remain flexible in export planning to ensure efficiency and minimize risks.

Source: Compiled by the Multilateral Trade Policy Department, Ministry of Industry and Trade of Viet Nam